Reflections : Can Spain Win WC 2010?

Since their marvelous triumph of Euro 2008 Spain have been dominating international football. They have won match after match except for that Confederations Cup semi final against USA. Spain are currently the bookies and also a lot of pundits and fans favorite for glory in South Africa even ahead of Brazil. This writer is a huge fan of Spain. They are one of the teams he strongly supports and want to see do well but he does not share this enthusiasm. No matter how he sees it he just cannot see Iker Casillas lifting the trophy in Johannesburg.

Now before you think that this writer is either drunk, drugged or bitten by a mad dog, he has a long list of reasons to believe this and he will elaborate them here. It does sound strange that this writer claims that the team which has been winning match after match and is currently number 1 in the Fifa rankings has no chance of winning the world cup. Unfortunately that's how he thinks it will pan out. Let's elaborate on the reasons.


1. Absence Of A Suitable Defensive Midfielder - Not for a second is this writer saying that he does not rate Marcos Senna high. In fact this writer will be the first one to say that Senna did a superb job in Euro 2008 and was almost indispensable in Spain's triumph. The problem now is that by the time the world cup starts Senna will be almost 34 years old. To expect him to show that kind of energy and fighting spirit continuously for several matches is just too much. By this age even the decade's best defensive midfielder Claude Makelele had decided that his time with the French national team was up. The big problem is that Spain has not even prepared a replacement for Senna. Xabi Alonso is just not that type of player. He is a wonderful possession player and a great passer of the ball but he just cannot play the role of the tackling midfield hard man. The other player being kind of groomed for this is Barcelona's Sergio Busquets who again is more like Alonso than like Senna. He has played this role for his club and will make a decent attempt but when push comes to shove it's clear that he would lack the physical toughness required for this role.

2. Unable To Break Down Rigid Defenses - Spain have maximum problems trying to break down teams who sit in front of the goal line and defend in numbers. In such a situation Spain maintain a very high percentage of possession but there is a clear lack of cutting edge. Since Spain hardly has tall players or players who are good in the air they just rely on their ability to pass the ball well and create goal scoring chances. Against teams that defend for their lives this often doesn't work. Any African team is bound to give Spain problems and also some of the predominantly defensive European teams.

3. Poor At Set Pieces - Spain just don't have that one world class free kick taker who can score a goal from a free kick when their is no other way to score one. Xavi is a very decent free kick taker but he is not lethal. It's almost guaranteed that in each match they play Spain will win lots of free kicks and waste every one of them. Also players not being very tall or that strong in the air will hurt in this aspect.

4. Suspect Defense - Spain's central defense is likely to be made up of Barcelona's pairing of Puyol and Pique. Now Barcelona's defense is not bad by any stretch of the imagination. Yet Puyol will be 32 years when the tournament comes on and will have gone through a very rigorous season just before that. It might be difficult for his aging legs to come up with one brilliant performance after another. Pique is no doubt promising but he must not let enthusiasm get the better of him. Nevertheless it's the full backs which are a bigger cause for worry. Sergio Ramos, who has always been seen as very promising, and who in fact has been playing quite well the last few weeks, is well capable of the most catastrophic of gaffes in the most crucial of moments. Joan Capdevila is not really world class and while he does a decent job he could be exposed by the best of the right sided attackers.

5. Villa And Torres Do Not Combine Well - If you consider the opinion of those who matter in the football world it's almost sure that their vote for the best striker in the world would go to Fernando Torres. And if you look at other equally good ones David Villa is sure to be included. Unfortunately both are very different kinds of players and are not able to adjust to each others game. Torres' game is about playing off the shoulders of the last defender and making dangerous runs towards goal whenever possible. Villa's game is about combining with the midfielders as if he were a midfielder himself and then after exchanging several passes looking for the right moment to score a goal or create a chance for someone else. When playing for Spain alongside Villa, Torres just does not get the space he needs to make his runs. Is this not absolutely shocking that a striker of Torres' unquestionable capability did not score even one goal in the WC 2010 qualifiers? The sensible option no matter how crazy it sounds would be to play only one striker in a 4-2-3-1 or a similar formation. Unfortunately the two strikers are the world's very best. It's not easy for any coach to drop either of them. Villa is Mr. Consistency and just does not stop scoring. Torres is so lethal that we can call him a one chance one goal striker. Still they just don't combine well and when playing for Spain Torres hardly gets chances to score.

6. Over Reliance On Xavi ( Lack Of Plan B ) - Every single potential opponent of Spain knows that their entire game revolves around Xavi. After beating Spain in the only match they have lost recently USA coach Bob Bradley told the world media that the key to beating Spain was to mark Xavi out of the game. Many teams are likely to employ the same tactic. If Spain's pass and move game is disrupted they just don't have any other style of playing. In other words they just don't have a plan B which is crucial for any team in a tournament like the world cup.

7. The History Factor - Since Spain won Euro 2008 people seem to have forgotten that they do not have much pedigree in the world cup. In a world cup as the tournament reaches the later rounds the results have an almost mythical way of favoring the teams with pedigree. That means you will hardly ever get a world cup finalist who hasn't been there before. Spain has never even been to the semi finals of a world cup. They did finish 4th once in 1950 but there were no semi finals then and even there they were 4th by some distance. Other than that they have never finished in the top 4 in any world cup. Expecting a team with that kind of record to go on and win the tournament itself is a very big ask.


If right now this writer is to gaze into his crystal ball and predict where Spain will finish in WC 2010 he would say that after crossing the group stage and entering the second round Spain is virtually certain to meet either the physicality of the Ivory Coast, the enthusiastic determination of Portugal or the power of Brazil and in any case that will be the end of them.

If this writer's predictions come true he will feel vindicated but also saddened that such a talented group of wonderful players could not win the ultimate prize in football. On the other hand if his predictions turn out totally wrong he would feel foolish for sure but also glad to see that a team which plays in such an aesthetically pleasing manner is able to lift the biggest prize of all in what surely would be a victory for the beautiful game.