Reflections : WC 2010 Draw

Now that we know the identity of the thirty two teams who will be part of the biggest event in world sport next summer, let us try to analyze how these teams will get divided into eight groups of four teams each. Please note that this article is largely speculative since Fifa will make official announcements only some time later. And thus there should be much more to add/modify, once the draw comes even closer. This writer is mainly using what was done in WC 2006 as the basis for the analysis.

Let us start off by looking at who the seeds will be. As per the usual Fifa policy, the hosts South Africa will be seeded. We need to work out the seven others. Since the Fifa team rankings for November have not yet been announced, let us go by the rankings of October giving them 50% weight age. The remaining 50% weight age will be given to the performance in the past two world cups with WC 2006 accounting for 2/3 and WC 2002 accounting for 1/3.

Now here are the teams ranked from WC 2002. The teams who will not be in WC 2010 are not listed. The points will be worked out as equal to ( 33 - rank ) for each team that made it to the round of 16 or beyond from each world cup and then the weighted average will be calculated. For those that were eliminated in the group stage, there are 9 points for coming third and 8 points for sitting at the bottom. Not appearing at the tournament means 0 points.

1. Brazil
2. Germany
3. Turkey
4. Korea
5. Spain
6. England
8. USA
9. Japan
10. Denmark
11. Mexico
15. Italy
16. Paraguay

Similarly for WC 2006, the teams are ranked as follows.

1. Italy
2. France
3. Germany
4. Portugal
5. Brazil
6. Argentina
7. England
9. Spain
10. Switzerland
11. Netherlands
13. Ghana
15. Mexico
16. Australia

So on the basis of these two world cups as well as the current Fifa team ranking, the teams which would be in contention for seeding are being evaluated below and their points computed.

Brazil = 0.67*28 + 0.33*32 + 32 = 61.33
Spain = 0.67*24 + 0.33*28 + 31 = 56.33
Netherlands = 0.67*22 + 0.33*0 + 30 = 44.67
Italy = 0.67*32 + 0.33*18 + 29 = 56.33
Germany = 0.67*30 + 0.33*31 + 28 = 58.33
Argentina = 0.67*27 + 0.33*9 + 27 = 48.00
England = 0.67*26 + 0.33*27 + 26 = 52.33
France = 0.67*31 + 0.33*8 + 24 = 47.33
Portugal = 0.67*29 + 0.33*9 + 23 = 45.33


So going by this calculation and working out our top seven seeds, this is what our pot 1 would look like.

Pot 1 - South Africa, Brazil, Germany, Italy, Spain, England, Argentina, France

Now pot 2 would contain the eight remaining European teams.

Pot 2 - Portugal, Netherlands, Denmark, Switzerland, Slovakia, Serbia, Slovenia, Greece

All seeds would so desperately want to avoid Portugal and Netherlands.

Pot 3 would contain the remaining teams from South America and Africa.

Pot 3 - Paraguay, Chile, Uruguay, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Nigeria, Algeria

All look like very competent teams. There may be an extra desire to avoid the physically strong and unpredictable African sides even more on their own turf but the three teams from South America look very competitive as well.

Pot 4 would contain the teams from North America, Asia and Oceania.

Pot 4 - USA, Mexico, Honduras, South Korea, Japan, Australia, North Korea, New Zealand

This is the only pot which can possibly provide push overs. Such teams could be New Zealand, Honduras and North Korea. Teams will specially want to avoid USA and Mexico from this pot.

Let us end by discussing what is usually most talked about at the end of the draw - the group(s) of death. From this analysis, it looks like two groups of death are possible while one is a certainty. WC 2006 had two groups of death with Argentina and Italy the unlucky seeded teams in them. This time Portugal and Netherlands look like they will be the most dangerous floaters. Now if one of them were to be drawn into the group containing South Africa, one group of death would be avoided. If not, there would be two groups of death. These groups could become even tighter if either of USA or Mexico happen to be drawn in any of them.

All in all, the world cup draw is almost as exciting as a top class football match. This writer for one is eagerly awaiting it with bated breath.